BLOG 2:    14 March 2010

“There are only two ways to deal with the white man. Either you pick up the gun or you stand between his and his money.”

Chief Terry Nelson, Roseau River First Nation, Manitoba. CTV, May 15, 2007.

The political novel, Uprising, describes a coming ‘aboriginal insurgency’ in Canada – that is, a coordinated aboriginal movement that challenges the sovereignty of the government of Canada over vast national territories. The narrative was developed from the real-life actions of certain native communities over the years, as in Oka, Quebec and Ipperwash and Calidonia and Desoronto in Ontario and from recent statements by aboriginal leaders. Former Grand Chief of the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), Phil Fontaine, remarked that “We have a right to be frustrated, concerned angry – anger that’s growing …” in the First Nation community. Terry Nelson of the Roseau First Nations in Manitoba declaration at the top of this page is unambiguous. In December 2009, some chiefs of the AFN threaten Canada’s economy – “[in 2010] there will be roadblocks and other things.”

These remarks suggest clearly that some aboriginal leaders think that Canada is vulnerable to actions against its infrastructure and its economy. Theory suggests that where there are significant grievances in a large part of a society that these grievances can become the so-called ‘root causes’ of rebellions. Other research argues that where root causes are strong and a nation is large, rugged, and its economy is dependent on exports across a difficult to defence territory, then the ‘feasibility of an insurgency’ is almost inevitable.

An assessment of Canada’s situation that is particularly credible and startling was made by former Lieutenant General, and now Liberal Senator, Romeo Dallaire who at a 2008 meeting of the Parliamentary Senate Committee on Aboriginal Affairs asked “Is the internal security risk rising … In fact, if [the aboriginal people] ever coalesced, could they not bring this country to a standstill?”

Some central questions Canadians need to consider before they decide when they consider aboriginal affairs in Canada are these: Should we take these aboriginal ‘threats’ seriously; is an aboriginal insurgency really feasible; and is the aboriginal community really capable of organizing a nation-wide insurgency? What are your answers?

For you tacticians out there, if you were the leader of such an insurgency, what and who would you target to “bring Canada to a standstill”? If you’re an aboriginal in Canada, what’s your battle plan?

In our next blog let’s consider the facts of aboriginal life in Canada and the ‘root causes’ that might lead to an Uprising.

BLOG  1:   27 February 2010

Why This Book?

Insurgency, an unarmed or armed attack on the sovereignty of a state, is the greatest threat to any government next to an attack across its borders by a hostile nation. Insurgencies tend to follow a pattern – the society divides for whatever reasons into demographic elements; usually the minority is subjected to types of abuses and these create ‘grievances’; the majority provides no relief for these grievances nor does it in the eyes of the minority adequately redress these grievances even if it the majority makes in its own estimation an honest attempt to do so; grievances over time provide the fuel for unrest; unrest brings a counter-move by the majority; radicals beget radicals on all sides; then, through some miscalculation, accidental incident, or the arrival of a radical leader who takes ownership of the minorities complaints for his/her own reasons conflicts occur; conflicts escalate into sectarian or communal violence and clandestine warfare.

Academics argue that this dynamic is based in ‘root causes’ or the grievances suggested here. But the argument is incomplete in my view because there are many aggrieved societies that do not rise up in revolt. It seems that insurgencies occur whenever certain factors are present that makes them ‘feasible – possible and practical to do easily or conveniently.’ In other words, insurgencies occur because there are root causes and because they can occur.

The factors that make occurrence likely are combinations of 1) a population in which young (16-30) males are unusually predominate in the minority population; 2) a territory and landscape that is large, rugged, difficult to traverse – think of Afghanistan or most of rural Canada; 3) a nation that depends on the export of resources that must travel through this difficult terrain.

UPRISING applies this model to the present-day circumstances of Canada’s aboriginal people, the vulnerability of Canada’s resource industry, and the failure of governments over many years to adequately address the deteriorating relations in our community to warn Canadians –aboriginal and non-aboriginal alike – to beware of the dangers lurking in our communities.